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Discipline:Earth System Science

Education Background

  • 1989-1992: PH.D., Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, Germany. Major: Geosciences; Minors: Theoretical Meteorology (Dynamics) and Applied Mathematics (numerical methods for differential equations). Supervisors of the three subjects are Prof. P. J. Crutzen (Nobel Laureate) and Prof. M. Domrös, Prof. W. Zdunkowski, and Prof. W. Börsch-Supan respectively. Title of the Ph.D. thesis: 'Development of a Two-Dimensional Model of Global Climate-Transport'. Degree earned on 27 February 1992.
  • 1989-1992: B.SC., Department of Meteorology, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China. Majored in Climatology.
  • Work Experience

  • 2024-     Xinghua Distinguished Chair Professor at Tsinghua University
  • 2012-2018 Assistant Dean for Research of the Faculty of Science, University of Gothenburg
  • 2009-2012   Executive Director of the International Council for Science (ICSU)
  • 2007- The August Röhss Chair in Physical Geography at the University of Gothenburg
  • 2006-2007  Director for ‘Gothenburg Atmospheric Science Centre’
  • 1993-2024 Senior Lecturer in Physical Meteorology at Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Sweden in 1993. Promoted to Associate Professor in 1996. Became a Full Professor of Physical Meteorology in 2000
  • 1992-1993  Postdoc working on developing a simple atmosphere model for studying air-sea interactions, at the Department of Physics II, Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
  • 1993- Senior Lecturer in Physical Meteorology at Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Sweden in 1993. Promoted to Associate Professor in 1996. Became a Full Professor of Physical Meteorology in 2000
  • 1992            Postdoc working on using a regional air quality model to study dry deposition, at the Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
  • 1988-1992  Ph.D. student at Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz working on developing a two-dimensional climate model for air chemistry studies under the guidance of Prof. Paul J. Crutzen at Max-Planck-Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
  • 1983-1988   Personal Assistant to the Director and Research Assistant at the Institute of Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. Research works concern climate productivity of crops and water balances for northern China during 1984 and 1985, crop water requirements and evapotranspiration during 1985 and 1986, and land surface process modeling in the global climate model during 1987 and 1988.
  • Overview

    Earth system as a complex system

    Global change with a focus on environmental changes in the cryosphere, especially in the Tibetan Plateau

    Climate changes and their impacts on water, ecosystem, and disaster risks

    Climate resilience.

    Publication

    Summary: (co-)authored 700+ refereed articles in journals including 60+ articles in high-profile ones such as Nature, Science, Science Bulletin, National Science Review, Nature Climate Change, Nature Communications, Nature Geoscience, Nature Energy, Nature Sustainability, Nature Water, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Nature Ecology & Evolution, Science Advances, and PNAS. Total citations=27 579, H- index=84 (according to Web of Science). Selected into Clarivate’s global “Highly Cited Scientists” list multiple times. Publications until 2024 are listed at his old website at http://rcg.gvc.gu.se/dc/.


    1.Adhikari, T. R., B. Baniya, C. Sharma, Q. Tang, H. Li, D. Chen, N. Khadka, M. Sigdel, R. P. Awasthi, 2025: Evaluating the influence of meteorological drought on river flow in the transboundary Sunkoshi basin, Nepal. Journal of Water and Climate Change. DOI:10.2166/wcc.2025.487.

    2.Bu, L.-L., Zhang, K.-W., Zuo, Z.-Y., Chen, D., 2025: Projection for the occurrence dates of heat stress in North China. Advances in Climate Change Research. DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.011.

    3.Cai, Z., Q. You, J. A. Screen, H. W. Chen, R. Zhang, Z. Zuo, D. Chen, J. Cohen, S. Kang, and R. Zhang, 2025: Lessened projections of Arctic warming and wetting after correcting for model errors in global warming and sea ice coverScience Advances11(10), eadr6413. DOI:10.1126/sciadv.adr6413.

    4.Cao, D., X. Chen, D. Chen, Y. Du, Y. Luo, Y. Hu, Q. Zhang, Y. Ma, F. Chen, 2025: Two Types of Heavy Precipitation in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Science Bulletin, 70(5), 748-755. DOI:10.1016/j.scib.2024.12.031.

    5.Chai, C., L. Wang, D. Chen, J. Zhou, H. Liu, Y. Wang, and J. Long, 2025: Quantifying multi-sphere impacts on mountain runoff of a Third Pole River. Journal of Environmental Management, 380, 125153. DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125153.

    6.Chen, A., J. Wang, R. Toumi, H. Huang, L. Yang, D. Chen, B. He, and J. Liu, 2025: Impact of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation on Fluvial Discharge in the Lancang‒Mekong River Basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(8). DOI:10.1029/2024gl113199.

    7.Chen, D., 2025: Challenges in Cross-disciplinary Interactions for Sustainable Development Goals. Nexus 2(1), 100046DOI:10.1016/j.ynexs.2024.100046.

    8.Chen, X., X. Xu, Q. Zhang, Y. Liu, D. Chen, and Y. Ma, 2025: Reduction of the GPM IMERG Final Run Underestimation in the Eastern Himalaya. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 26(4), 445-458. DOI:10.1175/jhm-d-24-0088.1.

    9.Chen, Y., S. Zhang, H. Wang, D. Chen, and J. Liu, 2025: Human-Induced Climate Change Intensifies Extreme Precipitation Events in Central China's Urban Areas. Geophysical Research Letters 52, e2024GL111818, DOI:10.1029/2024GL111818.

    10.Cheng, M., Q. You, Z. Zuo, M. Li, D. Chen, and N. Boers, 2025: Amazon deforestation intensifies atmospheric aridity through locally dominant biophysical mechanisms. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 372. DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110693.

    11.Dong, T., Z. Zeng, M. Pan, D. Wang, Y. Chen, L. Liang, S. Yang, Y. Jin, S. Luo, S. Liang, X. Huang, D. Zhao, A. D. Ziegler, D. Chen, L. Z. X. Li, T. Zhou, and D. Zhang, 2025: Record-breaking 2023 marine heatwaves. Science, 389(6758), 369. DOI:10.1126/science.adr0910.

    12.Gao, J., K. Fang, J. M. Chen, J. Li, S. Rossi, D. Chen, H. W. Linderholm, J. J. Camarero, J. Esper, N. K. Davi, T. F. Au, and Z. Guo, 2025: Climate-driven patterns of global tree longevity. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1). DOI:10.1038/s43247-025-02609-2.

    13.Gao, Y., X. Guo, W. Kou, X. Guo, S. Zhang, H. Gao, and D. Chen, 2025: Advancing high-resolution modeling to unravel the interplay between extreme weather events and air pollution under global warming. Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering, 19(7). DOI:10.1007/s11783-025-2020-9.

    14.Gao, Y., X. Guo, J. Lu, T. Woolings, D. Chen, X. Guo, W. Kou, S. Zhang, L. R. Leung, R. Schiemann, C. H. O'Reilly, C. Guo, J. Li, H. Gao, and L. Wu, 2025: Enhanced Simulation of Atmospheric Blocking in a HighResolution Earth System Model: Projected Changes and Implications for Extreme Weather Events. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130(3). DOI:10.1029/2024jd042045.

    15.Gao, Y., W. Kou, W. Cheng, X. Guo, B. Qu, Y. Wu, S. Zhang, H. Liao, D. Chen, R. Leung, O. Wild, J. Zhang, G. Lin, H. Su, Y. Cheng, U. Pöschl, A. Pozzer, L. Zhang, J. Lamarque, A. Guenther, G. Brasseur, Z. Liu, H. Lu, C. Li, B. Zhao, S. Wang, X. Huang, J. Pan, G. Liu, X. Liu, H. Lin, Y. Zhao, C. Zhao, J. Meng, X. Yao, H. Gao, and L. Wu, 2025: Reducing LongStanding Surface Ozone Overestimation in Earth System Modeling by HighResolution Simulation and Dry Deposition Improvement. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 17(3). DOI:10.1029/2023ms004192.

    16.Huang, H., J. Liu, L. Guillaumot, A. Chen, I. E. M. de Graaf, and D. Chen, 2025: Contrasting impacts of irrigation and deforestation on Lancang-Mekong River Basin hydrology. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1). DOI:10.1038/s43247-025-02093-8.

    17.Jiang, N., C. Zhu, Z. Z. Hu, M. J. McPhaden, T. Lian, C. Zhou, W. Qian, and D. Chen, 2025: El Niño and Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Effects Lead to Historically High Global Mean Surface Temperatures in 2023. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(2). DOI:10.1029/2024gl113733.

    18.Li, D., Y. Shen, X. Ye, X. Fu, Y. Yang, T. Ou, D. Chen, F. Tian, and L. Yang, 2025: A ten-year (2012–2021) fine-resolution (1 km, hourly) precipitation dataset over southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Scientific Data, 12(1). DOI:10.1038/s41597-025-04654-0.

    19.Li, S., Y. Gao, J. Zhang, C. Hong, S. Zhang, D. Chen, O. Wild, Z. Feng, Y. Xu, X. Guo, W. Kou, F. Yan, M. Ma, X. Yao, H. Gao, and S. J. Davis, 2025: Mitigating climate change and ozone pollution will improve Chinese food security. One Earth, 8(2), 101166. DOI:10.1016/j.oneear.2024.12.002.

    20.Li, X., H. Guo, G. Cheng, X. Song, Y. Ran, M. Feng, T. Che, X. Li, L. Wang, A. Duan, D. Shangguan, D. Chen, R. Jin, J. Deng, J. Su, and B. Cao, 2025: Polar regions are critical in achieving global sustainable development goals. Nature Communications, 16(1). DOI:10.1038/s41467-025-59178-3.

    21.Li, Z. B., M. Sun, C. Shen, and D. Chen, 2025: ENSODriven Seasonal Variability in NearSurface Wind Speed and Wind Power Potential Across China. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(9). DOI:10.1029/2025gl115537.

    22.Liang, S., A. D. Ziegler, P. B. Reich, K. Zhu, D. Wang, X. Jiang, D. Chen, P. Ciais, and Z. Zeng Climate mitigation potential for targeted forestation after considering climate change, fires, and albedo. Science Advances, 11(15), eadn7915. DOI:10.1126/sciadv.adn7915.

    23.Liu, B.-X., Q.-H. Tang, X.-M. Xu, S.-A. Sun, D. Chen, J.-K. Luan, and H.-Y. Ren, 2025: Evaluating ISIMIP3b bias-corrected data for precipitation extremes in China during 1981–2100. Advances in Climate Change Research. DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.005.

    24.Liu, H., L. Wang, D. Chen, T. Yao, A. Bashir, M. Shrestha, T. Conradt, S. Nepal, J. Zhou, X. Li, N. Li, R. Liu, and B. Xu, 2025: Importance of melting water in the Third Pole transboundary fluvial floods. Science Bulletin. DOI:10.1016/j.scib.2025.06.038.

    25.Liu, X., M. Yang, T. Ou, H.-W. Lai, F. Wen, N. Dong, H. Wang, and D. Chen, 2025: Enhancing summer atmospheric water cycle simulations in the three-river headwaters region via dynamical downscaling. Atmospheric Research, 314, 107810. DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107810.

    26.Liu, Y., H. Song, Z. An, Q. Li, S. W. Leavitt, U. Büntgen, Q. Cai, R. Liu, C. Fang, C. Sun, K. Treydte, M. Ren, L. Mo, Y. Song, W. Cai, Q. Zhang, W. Zhou, A. Bräuning, J. Grießinger, D. Chen, H. W. Linderholm, A. Sinha, H. Cheng, L. Wang, Y. Lei, J. Sun, W. Gong, X. Li, L. Cui, L. Ning, L. Wan, T. W. Crowther, and C. M. Zohner, 2025: Recent centennial drought on the Tibetan Plateau is outstanding within the past 3500 years. Nature Communications, 16(1), 1311. DOI:10.1038/s41467-025-56687-z.

    27.Liu, Y., Q. Tang, L. R. Leung, D. Chen, J. A. Francis, C. Zhang, H. W. Chen, and S. C. Sherwood, 2025: Changes in atmospheric circulation amplify extreme snowfall fueled by Arctic sea ice loss over high-latitude land. Weather and Climate Extremes, 50, 100802. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100802.

    28.Liu, Z., Y. H. Fu, D. Chen, T. W. Crowther, R. Ding, F. Hao, Y. Vitasse, X. Zhang, S. Zhou, and C. M. Zohner, 2025: Increased early-season productivity drives earlier peak of vegetation photosynthesis across the Northern Hemisphere. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1). DOI:10.1038/s43247-025-02104-8.

    29.Liu, Z., J. Liu, and D. Chen, 2025: Unraveling the response of the apparent temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to rising temperature. Environmental Research Letters, 20(3), 034008. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/adad00.

    30.Lu, F., H. Lu, Y. Gu, P. Lin, Q. Zhang, Z. Lu, H. Zhang, F. Yang, X. Dong, S. Yi, D. Chen, F. S. R. Pausata, M. Ben-Yami, J. V. Mecking, 2025: Tipping point-induced abrupt shifts in East Asian hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature Communications, 16, 477, DOI:10.1038/s41467-025-55888-w.

    31.Luo, B., C. Xiao, D. Luo, Q. Fu, D. Chen, Q. Zhang, Y. Ge, and Y. Diao, 2025: Atmospheric and oceanic drivers behind the 2023 Canadian wildfires. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1). DOI:10.1038/s43247-025-02387-x.

    32.Luo, D., L. Wang, and D. Chen, 2025: Changes and impacts of the vulnerable cryosphere. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8(1), 237. DOI:10.1038/s41612-025-01101-0.

    33.Luo, H.-L., Chen, D., Yang, S., Yu, W., Wang, Z.-Q., 2025: Calibrating the simulated summer precipitation trend over the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 models using a sub-selection method. Advances in Climate Change Research, 16(1), 35–43. DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.005.

    34.Jiang, R., H. Lu, D. Chen, K. Yang, D. Guan, G. Huang, and F. Tian, 2025: Transboundary conflict from surface water scarcity under climate change. Nature Communications, 16(1). DOI:10.1038/s41467-025-63568-y.

    35.Nepal, J., R. Bhlon, L. Wang, M. Shrestha, D. Chen, H. Liu, N. Li, and X. Li, 2025: Quantifying the impact of snow drought on glacier melting at a Himalayan mountain basin. Journal of Hydrology, 661. DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133736.

    36.Ning, L., F. Xing, Z. Liu, J. Liu, M. E. Mann, F. Wu, L. Lei, Y. Wang, L. Wan, H. Xu, L. Tan, R. S. Bradley, M. Yan, W. Sun, D. Chen, H. Lu, Q. Wen, K. Chen, and Y. Qin, 2025: MegaTripolar Precipitation Change Accompanying Water Isotopes in Holocene Asian Summer Monsoon Reanalysis. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(17). DOI:10.1029/2025gl116451.

    37.Ou, T., D. Chen, J. Tang, C. Lin, X. Wang, J. Kukulies, and H.-W. Lai, 2025: Erratum: wet bias of summer precipitation in the northwestern Tibetan Plateau in ERA5 is linked to overestimated lower-level southerly wind over the Plateau. Climate Dynamics, 63(3). DOI:10.1007/s00382-025-07600-3.

    38.Pan, X., D. Chen, B. Pan, X. Huang, K. Yang, S. Piao, T. Zhou, Y. Dai, F. Chen, X. Li, 2025: Evolution and prospects of Earth system models: challenges and opportunities. Earth-Science Reviews, 260, 104986DOI:10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104986.

    39.Pei, L., S.-G. Miao, X.-Y. Huang, Z.-W. Yan, and D. Chen, 2025: Assessing the added value of convection-permitting modeling for urban climate research: A case study in eastern China. Advances in Climate Change Research, 16(1), 1. DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.004.

    40.Qiu, Y., J. Chen, D. Chen, R. I. Woolway, H. Luo, and L. Xiong, 2025: Dipolar response of precipitation to lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Hydrology, 660. DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133532.

    41.Qiu, Y., J. Chen, D. Chen, W. Thiery, D. Mercado-Bettín, L. Xiong, J. Xia, and R. I. Woolway, 2025: Enhanced heating effect of lakes under global warming. Nature Communications, 16(1). DOI:10.1038/s41467-025-59291-3.

    42.Ren, Z., Y.-F. Sang, P. Cui, C. Fei, and D. Chen, 2025: A dataset of gridded precipitation intensity- duration-frequency curves in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Scientific Data, 12:3, DOI:10.1038/s41597-024-04362-1.

    43.Shang, J., L. Pei, D. Chen, S.-G. Miao, Y.-Z. Zhang, X.-Y. Zhang, and W.-J. Cai, 2025: Quantifying the impact of infrastructure-based urban adaptation strategies on summer air temperature and heat exposure risk in Chinese cities. Advances in Climate Change Research. DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.005.

    44.Shen, C., Z. Li, F. Liu, H. W. Chen, D. Chen, 2025: A Robust reduction in near-surface wind speed after volcanic eruptions: Implications for wind energy generation. The Innovation, 6(1), 100734. DOI:10.1016/j.xinn.2024.100734.

    45.Sun, M., L. Wang, S. A. Kannenberg, H. Liu, C. R. Schwalm, P. Ciais, P. Gentine, W. K. Smith, K. Yu, W. Zhang, Y. Li, Y. Yang, X. Li, Z. Chen, D. Chen, P. Zhang, and X. Wu, 2025: The Key Role of Xylem Hydraulic Vulnerability in Influencing Interannual Growth Variability of Earlywood and Latewood Across the Northern Hemisphere. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 130(8). DOI:10.1029/2025jg008837.

    46.Sun, X., X. Zhong, X. Xu, Y. Huang, H. Li, J. D. Neelin, D. Chen, J. Feng, W. Han, L. Wu, and Y. Qi, 2025: A data-to-forecast machine learning system for global weather. Nature Communications, 16(1). DOI:10.1038/s41467-025-62024-1.

    47.Tan, X., Z. Peng, Y. Cheng, Y. Wang, Q. Chao, X. Huang, H. Yan, and D. Chen, 2025Leveraging artificial intelligence for research and action on climate change: opportunities, challenges, and future directions. Science Bulletin. DOI:10.1016/j.scib.2025.06.035.

    48.Tang, Q., and D. Chen, 2025: Global change exacerbates water cycle imbalances and intensifies water resource crises. Science China Earth Sciences. DOI:10.1007/s11430-025-1661-5.

    49.Tu, H., S. Wang, J. Meng, Y. Zhang, X. Chen, D. Chen, and J. Fan, 2025: Eigen microstate analysis unveils climate dynamics. Science China Physics, Mechanics & Astronomy, 68(4). DOI:10.1007/s11433-024-2586-2.

    50.Wang, S., G.-C. Li, Z.-H. Zhang, W.-Q. Zhang, X. Wang, D. Chen, W. Chen, and M.-H. Ding, 2025: Recent warming trends in Antarctica revealed by multiple reanalysis. Advances in Climate Change Research16(3), 447–459. DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.003.

    51.Wang, T., K. Zhang, D. Chen, and X. Wang, 2025: Big ambitions and insufficient actions: A decade of climate adaptation progress. Advances in Climate Change Research. DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.002.

    52.Wang, X., S. Wei, X. Gou, D. Chen, M. Lu, G. Pang, L. Qie, Y. Li, Q. Wang, L. Liu, T. Wang, M. Yang, and E. F. Kerimbaevich, 2025: Accelerated China’s cold regions contraction under climate warming. Gondwana Research. DOI:10.1016/j.gr.2025.08.004.

    53.Witharana, L., D. Chen, J. Curio, and A. Burman, 2025: Traditional ecological knowledge in High Mountain Asia: A pathway to climate resilience in agriculture amidst changing climates. Advances in Climate Change Research, 16(1), 167–182. DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.009.

    54.Xu, L., X. Yang, D. Chen, D. Sornette, A. V. Prishchepov, S. Ding, W. Pang, K. Suryanto Pribadi, B. Di, and X. Wang, 2025: Global coastal human settlement retreat driven by vulnerability to coastal climate hazards. Nature Climate Change. DOI:10.1038/s41558-025-02435-6.

    55.Yang, J., S. Kang, D. Chen, K. Duan, N. Wang, W. Du, L. Zhao, H. Deng, R. Wang, Z. Zhang, and R. R. Gillies, 2025: Reduced solid water storage over the Tibetan Plateau caused by black carbon. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1), 430. DOI:10.1038/s43247-025-02335-9.

    56.Yang, X., H. Luo, Z. Zhong, C.-H. Ho, G. Zeng, H.-W. Lai, T. Ou, W.-C. Wang, and D. Chen, 2025: Arctic wildfire carbon emissions strongly influenced by midsummer Tibetan Plateau precipitationCommunications Earth & Environment, 6(1). DOI:10.1038/s43247-025-02505-9.

    57.Yi, C., M. Rietkerk, J. M. Anderies, D. Chen, V. Dakos, P. D. L. Ritchie, J. C Rocha, M. Milkoreit, C. Quinn, 2025: Principles for guiding future research on resilience and tipping points. Environmental Research Letters, 20(3), 031008. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/adb7f3.

    58.Zhang, Q., C. Yi, G. Destouni, G. Wohlfahrt, Y. Kuzyakov, R. Li, E. Kutter, D. Chen, M. Rietkerk, Z. Tian, G. Hendrey, W. Fang, N. Krakauer, J. Jarsjo, J. Han, S. Xu, 2025: How Michaelis–Menten kinetics can represent ecosystem-scale respiration: scale and applicability. Environmental Research Letters, 20(4). DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/adc31a.

    59.Zhao, Y., Z. Sun, X. An, S. Zhang, S. Gong, D. Chen, H. Che, L. Han, G. Zhang, D. Zhu, Q. Hou, Y. Li, and S. Tong, 2025: Assessing the impacts of climate anomalies on plague risk in China during 1754–1949. Environment International, 201. DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2025.109555.

    60.Zheng, D., X. Yan, D. Tong, S.J. Davis, K. Caldeira, Y. Lin, Y. Guo, J. Li, P. Wang, L. Ping, S. Feng, Y. Liu, J. Cheng, D. Chen, K. He, and Q. Zhang, 2025: Strategies for climate-resilient global wind and solar power systems. Nature. DOI:10.1038/s41586-025-09266-7.

    61.Zhou, J., Q. Tang, K. Yang, R. Jiang, W. Pan, Y. Ren, J. Qin, D. Chen, and H. Lu, 2025: Improved hydropower simulation for China based on a newly developed hydropower database. Journal of Hydrology, 657. DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133022.

    62.Zhu, J., K. Fan, S. He, T. Zhang, Y. Deng, S. Yang, D. Chen, K. Deng, W. Yu, B. Tian, and H. H. N. Cheung, 2025: Quantitative attribution of 2016 extreme arctic warmth: comparison between late winter and early spring. Environmental Research Letters, 20(2). DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/adaed4.